Black swan - Revision history

Doug: Clarify definition.

2024-08-11T15:10:47Z

Clarify definition.

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:10, 11 August 2024
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	1. ''Risk management - treasury''.		1. ''Risk management - treasury''.

	An ~~apparently unusual~~ event of very high impact.		An unforeseen event of very high impact, usually adverse.

	~~Particularly one which - before it happened - was believed in error to be highly improbable~~, ~~or even impossible~~.


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	== See also ==		== See also ==
			* [[Adverse]]
	* [[Catalytic capital]]		* [[Catalytic capital]]
	* [[COVID-19]]		* [[COVID-19]]

Doug: Mend link.

2024-08-10T02:39:56Z

Mend link.

← Older revision		Revision as of 02:39, 10 August 2024
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	2. ''Risk management - treasury - Health ~~Warning~~''.		2. ''Risk management - treasury - Health warning''.

	It's particularly important not to misuse the term "black swan".		It's particularly important not to misuse the term "black swan".
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	* [[Green swan]]		* [[Green swan]]
	* [[Guide to risk management]]		* [[Guide to risk management]]
	* [[Health ~~Warning~~]]		* [[Health warning]]
	* [[Heuristic]]		* [[Heuristic]]
	* [[Horizon scanning]]		* [[Horizon scanning]]

Doug: Add Health Warning.

2024-08-09T23:41:39Z

Add Health Warning.

← Older revision		Revision as of 23:41, 9 August 2024
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	''Risk management - treasury''.		1. ''Risk management - treasury''.

	An apparently unusual event of very high impact.		An apparently unusual event of very high impact.
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	:''Living with Black Swans - Nassim Nicholas Taleb.''		:''Living with Black Swans - Nassim Nicholas Taleb.''


			2. ''Risk management - treasury - Health Warning''.

			It's particularly important not to misuse the term "black swan".

			The existence of black swans is not an acceptable excuse for failure to be suitably prepared for things that could indeed reasonably have been foreseen.

			Nor is it an acceptable excuse for failing to be suitably prepared for black swan events.


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	* [[Green swan]]		* [[Green swan]]
	* [[Guide to risk management]]		* [[Guide to risk management]]
			* [[Health Warning]]
	* [[Heuristic]]		* [[Heuristic]]
	* [[Horizon scanning]]		* [[Horizon scanning]]

Doug: Layout.

2024-07-20T14:03:14Z

Layout.

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:03, 20 July 2024
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	''Risk management''.		''Risk management - treasury''.

	An apparently unusual event of very high impact.		An apparently unusual event of very high impact.

Doug: Layout.

2024-07-20T10:30:29Z

Layout.

← Older revision		Revision as of 10:30, 20 July 2024
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	* [[Risk]]		* [[Risk]]
	* [[Stress test]]		* [[Stress test]]
			* [[Tail risk]]
	* [[Unicorn]]		* [[Unicorn]]
	* [[Weighted average cost of capital]]		* [[Weighted average cost of capital]]


	== ~~External links~~ ==		== Other resources ==
	*[https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/nassim-taleb-on-living-with-black-swans/ Nassim Taleb on Living with Black Swans]		*[https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/nassim-taleb-on-living-with-black-swans/ Nassim Taleb on Living with Black Swans]

Doug: Layout.

2023-11-29T13:11:15Z

Layout.

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:11, 29 November 2023
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	== See also ==		== See also ==
			* [[Catalytic capital]]
	* [[COVID-19]]		* [[COVID-19]]
	* [[Fat tail]]		* [[Fat tail]]
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	== External links ==		== External links ==
	[https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/nassim-taleb-on-living-with-black-swans/ Nassim Taleb on Living with Black Swans]		*[https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/nassim-taleb-on-living-with-black-swans/ Nassim Taleb on Living with Black Swans]

	[https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/weekly-market-outlook-coronavirus-may-be-black-swan-like-no-other.pdf Coronavirus may be a black swan like no other: Moody's]		*[https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/weekly-market-outlook-coronavirus-may-be-black-swan-like-no-other.pdf Coronavirus may be a black swan like no other: Moody's]

	[[Category:Identify_and_assess_risks]]		[[Category:Identify_and_assess_risks]]

imported>Doug Williamson: Add link.

2021-12-31T04:49:41Z

Add link.

← Older revision		Revision as of 04:49, 31 December 2021
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	* [[COVID-19]]		* [[COVID-19]]
	* [[Fat tail]]		* [[Fat tail]]
			* [[Green swan]]
	* [[Guide to risk management]]		* [[Guide to risk management]]
	* [[Heuristic]]		* [[Heuristic]]

imported>Doug Williamson: Add links.

2021-08-08T12:54:16Z

Add links.

← Older revision		Revision as of 12:54, 8 August 2021
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	* [[Horizon scanning]]		* [[Horizon scanning]]
	* [[Moody's]]		* [[Moody's]]
			* [[Optimal capital structure]]
	* [[Optimisation]]		* [[Optimisation]]
	* [[Portfolio analysis]]		* [[Portfolio analysis]]
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	* [[Stress test]]		* [[Stress test]]
	* [[Unicorn]]		* [[Unicorn]]
			* [[Weighted average cost of capital]]

imported>Doug Williamson: Add link.

2021-07-30T17:35:36Z

Add link.

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:35, 30 July 2021
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	* [[Guide to risk management]]		* [[Guide to risk management]]
	* [[Heuristic]]		* [[Heuristic]]
			* [[Horizon scanning]]
	* [[Moody's]]		* [[Moody's]]
	* [[Optimisation]]		* [[Optimisation]]

imported>Doug Williamson: Expand quote. Source: Living with Black Swans https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/nassim-taleb-on-living-with-black-swans/

2021-06-20T01:03:19Z

Expand quote. Source: Living with Black Swans https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/nassim-taleb-on-living-with-black-swans/

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:03, 20 June 2021
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	:I hope the message will finally get across because I haven't succeeded yet.		:I hope the message will finally get across because I haven't succeeded yet.

	:People talk about black swans but they don't talk about robustness, which is the real lesson of the black swans."		:People talk about black swans but they don't talk about robustness, which is the real lesson of the black swans ..."


			:"... almost 99 cases out of 100 optimizations make you vulnerable and fragile ...

			:... [When a company becomes] more specialized with things, and it works better, the numbers look better. But your hidden risks rise and rise. And then when you are faced with a problem, you don’t know what to do about it, whereas in other cases you have more variations all the time. You have more fluctuations and, of course, you are a lot more robust."


			:"... try not to predict the catalyst, which is the most foolish thing in the world, but to try to identify areas of vulnerability. [It’s] like saying a bridge is fragile. I can’t predict which truck is going to break it, so I have to look at it more in a structural form ...

			:And then you learn not to try to predict which truck is going to break that bridge. But you just look at bridges and say, “Oh, this bridge doesn’t have a great foundation. This other one does. And this one needs to be reinforced.” We can do a lot with the notion of robustness."

	:''Living with Black Swans - Nassim Nicholas Taleb.''		:''Living with Black Swans - Nassim Nicholas Taleb.''
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	== External ~~link~~ ==		== External links ==
			[https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/nassim-taleb-on-living-with-black-swans/ Nassim Taleb on Living with Black Swans]

	[https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/weekly-market-outlook-coronavirus-may-be-black-swan-like-no-other.pdf Coronavirus may be a black swan like no other: Moody's]		[https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/weekly-market-outlook-coronavirus-may-be-black-swan-like-no-other.pdf Coronavirus may be a black swan like no other: Moody's]

	[[Category:Identify_and_assess_risks]]		[[Category:Identify_and_assess_risks]]