Inflation - Revision history

Doug: Improve linking.

2025-08-16T09:58:57Z

Improve linking.

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:58, 16 August 2025
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	* [[RPIX]]		* [[RPIX]]
	* [[Services Producer Price Index]]		* [[Services Producer Price Index]]
			* [[Shrinkflation]]
	* [[Stagflation]]		* [[Stagflation]]
	* [[Transmission mechanism]]		* [[Transmission mechanism]]

Doug: Improve linking.

2025-03-09T17:20:54Z

Improve linking.

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:20, 9 March 2025
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	* [[Basket]]		* [[Basket]]
	* [[Bond vigilante]]		* [[Bond vigilante]]
			* [[Consumer Price Index]]
	* [[Consumer Prices Index]] (CPI)		* [[Consumer Prices Index]] (CPI)
	* [[Cost-push inflation]]		* [[Cost-push inflation]]
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	* [[Deflation]]		* [[Deflation]]
	* [[Demand-pull inflation]]		* [[Demand-pull inflation]]
			* [[Employment cost index]]
	* [[Financial stability]]		* [[Financial stability]]
	* [[Flexible inflation targeting]]		* [[Flexible inflation targeting]]
	* [[Gross domestic product]] (GDP)		* [[Gross domestic product]] (GDP)
			* [[Harmonised index of consumer prices]] (HICP)
	* [[Hyperinflation]]		* [[Hyperinflation]]
	* [[Index]]		* [[Index]]
			* [[Indexation]]
	* [[Index-linked gilt]]		* [[Index-linked gilt]]
	* [[~~Indexation~~]]		* [[Index-linking]]
	* [[Inflation Reduction Act]]		* [[Inflation Reduction Act]]
	* [[Inflation risk]]		* [[Inflation risk]]
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	* [[Inflation target]]		* [[Inflation target]]
	* [[Input index]]		* [[Input index]]
			* [[ISM Prices Paid index]]
			* [[Limited Price Indexation]]
	* [[Macroeconomics]]		* [[Macroeconomics]]
	* [[Monetary policy]]		* [[Monetary policy]]
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	* [[Personal Consumption Expenditures price index]] (PCE)		* [[Personal Consumption Expenditures price index]] (PCE)
	* [[Phillips curve]]		* [[Phillips curve]]
			* [[Producer Price Index]]
			* [[Purchasing Managers' Index]]
	* [[Real]]		* [[Real]]
	* [[Recession]]		* [[Recession]]
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	* [[Retail Prices Index]] (RPI)		* [[Retail Prices Index]] (RPI)
	* [[RPIX]]		* [[RPIX]]
			* [[Services Producer Price Index]]
	* [[Stagflation]]		* [[Stagflation]]
	* [[Transmission mechanism]]		* [[Transmission mechanism]]

Doug: Add link.

2025-03-09T15:30:50Z

Add link.

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:30, 9 March 2025
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	* [[Inflation swap]]		* [[Inflation swap]]
	* [[Inflation target]]		* [[Inflation target]]
			* [[Input index]]
	* [[Macroeconomics]]		* [[Macroeconomics]]
	* [[Monetary policy]]		* [[Monetary policy]]

Doug: Improve linking.

2025-03-09T15:21:20Z

Improve linking.

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:21, 9 March 2025
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	* [[Index]]		* [[Index]]
	* [[Index-linked gilt]]		* [[Index-linked gilt]]
			* [[Indexation]]
	* [[Inflation Reduction Act]]		* [[Inflation Reduction Act]]
	* [[Inflation risk]]		* [[Inflation risk]]
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	* [[Nominal]]		* [[Nominal]]
	* [[Output]]		* [[Output]]
			* [[Output price index]]
	* [[Overheating]]		* [[Overheating]]
	* [[PCE inflation]]		* [[PCE inflation]]

Doug: Improve linking.

2025-03-09T15:17:17Z

Improve linking.

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:17, 9 March 2025
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	* [[Recession]]		* [[Recession]]
	* [[Reflation]]		* [[Reflation]]
			* [[Retail Prices Index]] (RPI)
			* [[RPIX]]
	* [[Stagflation]]		* [[Stagflation]]
	* [[Transmission mechanism]]		* [[Transmission mechanism]]

Doug: Improve linking.

2025-03-09T13:01:12Z

Improve linking.

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:01, 9 March 2025
Line 52:		Line 52:
	* [[Basket]]		* [[Basket]]
	* [[Bond vigilante]]		* [[Bond vigilante]]
	* [[Consumer Prices Index]]		* [[Consumer Prices Index]] (CPI)
	* [[Cost-push inflation]]		* [[Cost-push inflation]]
	* [[CPI fixing swap]]		* [[CPI fixing swap]]
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	* [[Demand-pull inflation]]		* [[Demand-pull inflation]]
	* [[Financial stability]]		* [[Financial stability]]
			* [[Flexible inflation targeting]]
	* [[Gross domestic product]] (GDP)		* [[Gross domestic product]] (GDP)
	* [[Hyperinflation]]		* [[Hyperinflation]]
	* [[Index]]		* [[Index]]
	* [[Index-linked gilt]]		* [[Index-linked gilt]]
			* [[Inflation Reduction Act]]
	* [[Inflation risk]]		* [[Inflation risk]]
			* [[Inflation swap]]
	* [[Inflation target]]		* [[Inflation target]]
	* [[Macroeconomics]]		* [[Macroeconomics]]
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	==~~External link~~==		==Other resource==
	*[https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation Inflation - monetary policy - Bank of England]		*[https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation Inflation - monetary policy - Bank of England]

	[[Category:The_business_context]]		[[Category:The_business_context]]

Doug: Classify page.

2023-12-23T14:47:45Z

Classify page.

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:47, 23 December 2023
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	==External link==		==External link==
	*[https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation Inflation - monetary policy - Bank of England]		*[https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation Inflation - monetary policy - Bank of England]

			[[Category:The_business_context]]

Doug: Add link.

2023-12-20T19:34:30Z

Add link.

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:34, 20 December 2023
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	* [[Output]]		* [[Output]]
	* [[Overheating]]		* [[Overheating]]
			* [[PCE inflation]]
	* [[Personal Consumption Expenditures price index]] (PCE)		* [[Personal Consumption Expenditures price index]] (PCE)
	* [[Phillips curve]]		* [[Phillips curve]]
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	==External link==		==External link==
	*[https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation Inflation - monetary policy - Bank of England]		*[https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation Inflation - monetary policy - Bank of England]

	~~[[Category:Financial_risk_management]]~~

imported>Doug Williamson: Layout.

2023-06-22T08:12:52Z

Layout.

← Older revision		Revision as of 08:12, 22 June 2023
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	Even what one should try to include in GDP is disputable. For example, if you employ a care-worker to look after a sick or infirm family member, the service provision is part of GDP. If one of the family does it, it is not. And what about the [[black economy]]? If you pay the just discussed care-worker in cash and don't tell the tax ~~man~~, will that be included? So, for example, internationally in the early 21st century, GDP estimates are being changed to include the "value" of prostitution and illegal drug use as the discussion moves on.		Even what one should try to include in GDP is disputable. For example, if you employ a care-worker to look after a sick or infirm family member, the service provision is part of GDP. If one of the family does it, it is not. And what about the [[black economy]]? If you pay the just discussed care-worker in cash and don't tell the tax authorities, will that be included? So, for example, internationally in the early 21st century, GDP estimates are being changed to include the "value" of prostitution and illegal drug use as the discussion moves on.

	Surveys of the prices in each year are hard too and raise a lot of the same questions as discussed above.		Surveys of the prices in each year are hard too and raise a lot of the same questions as discussed above.

imported>Doug Williamson: Layout.

2023-06-22T08:11:02Z

Layout.

← Older revision		Revision as of 08:11, 22 June 2023
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	This is the usual situation in most developed economies at most times.		This is the usual situation in most developed economies at most times.


	Contrasted with the less usual situation of Deflation, when prices generally are falling. However, very low - and negative - inflation has been more common in recent years. For example, measured by the [[CPI]], UK inflation was negative in both September and October 2015 and in both January and October 2019.		Contrasted with the less usual situation of Deflation, when prices generally are falling. However, very low - and negative - inflation has been more common in recent years. For example, measured by the [[CPI]], UK inflation was negative in both September and October 2015 and in both January and October 2019.
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	Since the term was first used "inflations" have proliferated. Retail price inflation, consumer price inflation, services inflation, government sector inflation, health sector inflation, asset price inflation (house prices, vintage cars, industrial assets, etc.), wage inflation, and so on.		Since the term was first used "inflations" have proliferated. Retail price inflation, consumer price inflation, services inflation, government sector inflation, health sector inflation, asset price inflation (house prices, vintage cars, industrial assets, etc.), wage inflation, and so on.


	And once we know what we are interested in, we need to define it more closely. What exact set of goods or services or assets precisely are we looking at? For each member of the set, how much weight do we give it in the basket - how do we weigh cream cakes against toothpaste? And if we include a device or a machine or a house, which precise type, model or design, and where bought?		And once we know what we are interested in, we need to define it more closely. What exact set of goods or services or assets precisely are we looking at? For each member of the set, how much weight do we give it in the basket - how do we weigh cream cakes against toothpaste? And if we include a device or a machine or a house, which precise type, model or design, and where bought?


	And what if our selected type is no longer made, or even the whole product ceases to be relevant? For example in Europe, households no longer launder with wash-boards and mangles (relatively cheap, though requiring much manual labour) but with washing machines (relatively expensive, but with much less manual labour required). And bars of laundry soap have been replaced by "clever" detergents? Or consider a mega-byte memory - that industrial good that fitted on the back of a truck and was used only by the largest companies and governments against the litter of USB memory sticks in drawers in developed-country houses at the start of the 21st century. Adjusting for this effect is called hedonic adjustment - but any two people are likely to value changes differently: it has huge amounts of subjectivity.		And what if our selected type is no longer made, or even the whole product ceases to be relevant? For example in Europe, households no longer launder with wash-boards and mangles (relatively cheap, though requiring much manual labour) but with washing machines (relatively expensive, but with much less manual labour required). And bars of laundry soap have been replaced by "clever" detergents? Or consider a mega-byte memory - that industrial good that fitted on the back of a truck and was used only by the largest companies and governments against the litter of USB memory sticks in drawers in developed-country houses at the start of the 21st century. Adjusting for this effect is called hedonic adjustment - but any two people are likely to value changes differently: it has huge amounts of subjectivity.


	And how do we find out prices - read a catalogue, go to the village shop, look online, etc.?		And how do we find out prices - read a catalogue, go to the village shop, look online, etc.?
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	And the most general measure of inflation in an economy - the implied GDP deflator - doesn't that include everything and so is most relevant to its society as a whole at the time? Well, it makes an effort, but it has its own problems. It is the (percentage) difference between nominal and real growth - this year's GDP ([[Gross domestic product]]) at actual prices and this year's GDP at last year's prices. But estimating GDP is very hard, different methods producing different results.		And the most general measure of inflation in an economy - the implied GDP deflator - doesn't that include everything and so is most relevant to its society as a whole at the time? Well, it makes an effort, but it has its own problems. It is the (percentage) difference between nominal and real growth - this year's GDP ([[Gross domestic product]]) at actual prices and this year's GDP at last year's prices. But estimating GDP is very hard, different methods producing different results.


	Even what one should try to include in GDP is disputable. For example, if you employ a care-worker to look after a sick or infirm family member, the service provision is part of GDP. If one of the family does it, it is not. And what about the [[black economy]]? If you pay the just discussed care-worker in cash and don't tell the tax man, will that be included? So, for example, internationally in the early 21st century, GDP estimates are being changed to include the "value" of prostitution and illegal drug use as the discussion moves on.		Even what one should try to include in GDP is disputable. For example, if you employ a care-worker to look after a sick or infirm family member, the service provision is part of GDP. If one of the family does it, it is not. And what about the [[black economy]]? If you pay the just discussed care-worker in cash and don't tell the tax man, will that be included? So, for example, internationally in the early 21st century, GDP estimates are being changed to include the "value" of prostitution and illegal drug use as the discussion moves on.

	Surveys of the prices in each year are hard too and raise a lot of the same questions as discussed above.		Surveys of the prices in each year are hard too and raise a lot of the same questions as discussed above.


	We are dividing an uncertain numerator by an uncertain denominator. So while the implied GDP deflator may be the best "general inflation" measure we have readily available, it should still be treated circumspectly.		We are dividing an uncertain numerator by an uncertain denominator. So while the implied GDP deflator may be the best "general inflation" measure we have readily available, it should still be treated circumspectly.

	Added to which, if we don't quite know what inflation is, we certainly have little idea of what the underlying causes of inflation are, though there are a lot of theories. The choice of underlying cause assumed in any article, speech or policy decision being perhaps as much an exercise in politics and wishful thinking as in economics.		Added to which, if we don't quite know what inflation is, we certainly have little idea of what the underlying causes of inflation are, though there are a lot of theories. The choice of underlying cause assumed in any article, speech or policy decision being perhaps as much an exercise in politics and wishful thinking as in economics.


	For these reasons it is normally better to undertake forecasting in money terms, rather than in 'real' (inflation-adjusted) terms.		For these reasons it is normally better to undertake forecasting in money terms, rather than in 'real' (inflation-adjusted) terms.