Probability - Revision history

imported>Doug Williamson: Classify page.

2019-12-24T16:59:38Z

Classify page.

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:59, 24 December 2019
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	[[Category:The_business_context]]		[[Category:The_business_context]]
			[[Category:Identify_and_assess_risks]]
			[[Category:Manage_risks]]
			[[Category:Risk_frameworks]]
			[[Category:Risk_reporting]]

2019-12-24T16:59:11Z

Classify page.

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:59, 24 December 2019
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	* [[Mutually exclusive]]		* [[Mutually exclusive]]
	* [[Poisson distribution]]		* [[Poisson distribution]]

			[[Category:The_business_context]]

2016-06-08T15:20:56Z

Add heading.

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:20, 8 June 2016
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	This simple model of a coin flip assumes that the only two possibilities are a head or a tail. Applying such simple models to financial situations, and treating financial outcomes as simple coin flips, may lead to errors resulting from:		===The problem===

			This simple model of a coin flip assumes that the only two possibilities are a head or a tail.

			Applying such simple models to financial situations, and treating financial outcomes as simple coin flips, may lead to errors resulting from:

	#The coin landing on its edge 'more often than it's supposed to'.		#The coin landing on its edge 'more often than it's supposed to'.

2016-06-08T15:19:57Z

Layout.

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:19, 8 June 2016
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	Probabilities range between 1 (=100%) and 0 (=0%).		Probabilities range between 1 (= 100%) and 0 (= 0%).

	A probability of 100% means that an event is considered certain to occur.		A probability of 100% means that an event is considered certain to occur.

2016-06-08T15:19:28Z

Layout.

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:19, 8 June 2016
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	The study of chance providing an objective measure of uncertainty.		The study of chance providing an objective measure of uncertainty.


	Probabilities range between 1 (=100%) and 0 (=0%).		Probabilities range between 1 (=100%) and 0 (=0%).

2016-06-08T15:19:02Z

Expand.

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:19, 8 June 2016
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	This simple model of a coin flip assumes that the only two possibilities are a head or a tail. Applying such simple models to financial situations, and treating financial outcomes as simple coin flips, may lead to errors resulting from:		This simple model of a coin flip assumes that the only two possibilities are a head or a tail. Applying such simple models to financial situations, and treating financial outcomes as simple coin flips, may lead to errors resulting from:

	#The coin landing on its ~~side~~ 'more often than it's supposed to'.		#The coin landing on its edge 'more often than it's supposed to'.
	#The underlying assumption of an unbiased coin not being valid.		#The underlying assumption of an unbiased coin not being a valid one. This kind of assumption is usually much too simple.

2016-03-27T13:53:49Z

Add link.

2016-03-23T19:48:41Z

Link with Confidence interval page.

2014-08-05T11:34:32Z

Link with Black swan page.

2014-08-05T11:32:27Z

Expand to give Health Warning about coin flip modelling of financial situations.

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:32, 5 August 2014
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	A probability of 0% means that an event is considered certain not to occur.		A probability of 0% means that an event is considered certain not to occur.

	~~Tossing~~ an unbiased coin, the probability of getting a head is 50%.
			For example, flipping an unbiased coin, the probability of getting a head is often modelled as 50%.


			This simple model of a coin flip assumes that the only two possibilities are a head or a tail. Applying such simple models to financial situations, and treating financial outcomes as simple coin flips, may lead to errors resulting from:

			#The coin landing on its side 'more often than it's supposed to'.
			#The underlying assumption of an unbiased coin not being valid.