Optimism bias - Revision history

Doug: Add link.

2024-02-20T16:46:07Z

Add link.

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:46, 20 February 2024
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	* [[Choice supporting bias]]		* [[Choice supporting bias]]
	* [[Cognitive bias]]		* [[Cognitive bias]]
			*[[Confidence]]
	* [[Confirmation bias]]		* [[Confirmation bias]]
	* [[Diversity]]		* [[Diversity]]

Doug: Add link.

2023-12-06T23:52:26Z

Add link.

← Older revision		Revision as of 23:52, 6 December 2023
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	* [[Objectivity]]		* [[Objectivity]]
	* [[Reactance bias]]		* [[Reactance bias]]
			* [[Resilience]]
	* [[Risk]]		* [[Risk]]
	* [[Risk management]]		* [[Risk management]]

Doug: Mend link.

2023-12-06T22:51:58Z

Mend link.

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:51, 6 December 2023
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	* [[Source bias]]		* [[Source bias]]
	* [[Sunk cost fallacy]]		* [[Sunk cost fallacy]]
	* [[~~Uncertainty~~]]		* [[Treasury]]

Doug: Add quote - source - UK Government Green Book - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-green-book-appraisal-and-evaluation-in-central-government/the-green-book-2020

2023-12-06T22:51:18Z

Add quote - source - UK Government Green Book - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-green-book-appraisal-and-evaluation-in-central-government/the-green-book-2020

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:51, 6 December 2023
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	:''Project appraisal and evaluation in central government - the 'Green Book' - UK Government - 2022.''		:''Project appraisal and evaluation in central government - the 'Green Book' - UK Government - 2022.''


			:<span style="color:#4B0082">'''''Uncertainty, optimism bias and risk'''''</span>

			:"In appraisal, uncertainty is often due to lack of evidence or understanding of the likely impact of new interventions. Research and previous evaluation evidence, pilot studies and evidence of what works can help to reduce this uncertainty.

			:Optimism bias is the demonstrated systematic tendency for appraisers to be over-optimistic about key project parameters...

			:Risks are specific uncertainties that arise from activities such as forecasting or implementation, the costs of which have been estimated. They are specific to an intervention and may be quantified and managed."

			:''Project appraisal and evaluation in central government - the 'Green Book' - UK Government - 2022 - Section 13.1.''


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	* [[Objectivity]]		* [[Objectivity]]
	* [[Reactance bias]]		* [[Reactance bias]]
			* [[Risk]]
			* [[Risk management]]
	* [[Self-investment bias]]		* [[Self-investment bias]]
	* [[Social bias]]		* [[Social bias]]
	* [[Source bias]]		* [[Source bias]]
	* [[Sunk cost fallacy]]		* [[Sunk cost fallacy]]
			* [[Uncertainty]]


	==Other resource==		==Other resource==
	*[https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-green-book-appraisal-and-evaluation-in-central-government/the-green-book-2020 Project appraisal and evaluation in central government - the 'Green Book' - UK Government - 2022]		*[https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-green-book-appraisal-and-evaluation-in-central-government/the-green-book-2020 Project appraisal and evaluation in central government - the 'Green Book' - UK Government - 2022]

	~~[[Category:Compliance_and_audit]]~~

	[[Category:Compliance_and_audit]]		[[Category:Compliance_and_audit]]

Doug: Add quote - source - UK Government Green Book - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-green-book-appraisal-and-evaluation-in-central-government/the-green-book-2020

2023-12-06T22:39:35Z

Add quote - source - UK Government Green Book - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-green-book-appraisal-and-evaluation-in-central-government/the-green-book-2020

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-''Cognitive bias''.
+''Risk management - cognitive bias''.
 Optimism bias is an unconscious cognitive bias.
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 Optimism bias is also known as ''overconfidence bias''.
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 * [[Source bias]]
 * [[Sunk cost fallacy]]
 [[Category:Compliance_and_audit]]

Doug: Add alternative name.

2023-11-22T20:45:17Z

Add alternative name.

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:45, 22 November 2023
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	It leads to overestimating the likelihood of success of our ideas and intentions.		It leads to overestimating the likelihood of success of our ideas and intentions.


			Optimism bias is also known as ''overconfidence bias''.


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	* [[Sunk cost fallacy]]		* [[Sunk cost fallacy]]

	~~[[Category:Working_effectively_with_others]]~~
	[[Category:Compliance_and_audit]]		[[Category:Compliance_and_audit]]
	~~[[Category:Ethics]]~~

imported>Doug Williamson: Add link.

2020-03-27T10:24:14Z

Add link.

← Older revision		Revision as of 10:24, 27 March 2020
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	* [[Social bias]]		* [[Social bias]]
	* [[Source bias]]		* [[Source bias]]
			* [[Sunk cost fallacy]]

	[[Category:Working_effectively_with_others]]		[[Category:Working_effectively_with_others]]
	[[Category:Compliance_and_audit]]		[[Category:Compliance_and_audit]]
	[[Category:Ethics]]		[[Category:Ethics]]

imported>Doug Williamson: Create page. Source: The Treasurer, December 2018 / January 2019, p41.

2019-01-01T10:53:51Z

Create page. Source: The Treasurer, December 2018 / January 2019, p41.

New page

''Cognitive bias''.

Optimism bias is an unconscious cognitive bias.

It leads to overestimating the likelihood of success of our ideas and intentions.

== See also ==
* [[Affinity bias]]
* [[Bandwagon bias]]
* [[Behavioural economics]]
* [[Choice supporting bias]]
* [[Cognitive bias]]
* [[Confirmation bias]]
* [[Diversity]]
* [[Dunning-Kruger effect]]
* [[Emotional intelligence]]
* [[Impostor syndrome]]
* [[Objectivity]]
* [[Reactance bias]]
* [[Self-investment bias]]
* [[Social bias]]
* [[Source bias]]

[[Category:Working_effectively_with_others]]
[[Category:Compliance_and_audit]]
[[Category:Ethics]]