Letter of comfort and Probability: Difference between pages
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The study of chance providing an objective measure of uncertainty. | |||
== | Probabilities range between 1 (=100%) and 0 (=0%). | ||
A probability of 100% means that an event is considered certain to occur. | |||
A probability of 0% means that an event is considered certain not to occur. | |||
For example, flipping an unbiased coin, the probability of getting a head is often modelled as 50%. | |||
This simple model of a coin flip assumes that the only two possibilities are a head or a tail. Applying such simple models to financial situations, and treating financial outcomes as simple coin flips, may lead to errors resulting from: | |||
#The coin landing on its edge 'more often than it's supposed to'. | |||
#The underlying assumption of an unbiased coin not being a valid one. This kind of assumption is usually much too simple. | |||
== See also == | == See also == | ||
* [[ | * [[Black swan]] | ||
* [[ | * [[Conditional probability]] | ||
* [[Confidence interval]] | |||
* [[Frequency distribution]] | |||
* [[Mutually exclusive]] | |||
* [[Poisson distribution]] | |||
Revision as of 15:19, 8 June 2016
The study of chance providing an objective measure of uncertainty.
Probabilities range between 1 (=100%) and 0 (=0%).
A probability of 100% means that an event is considered certain to occur.
A probability of 0% means that an event is considered certain not to occur.
For example, flipping an unbiased coin, the probability of getting a head is often modelled as 50%.
This simple model of a coin flip assumes that the only two possibilities are a head or a tail. Applying such simple models to financial situations, and treating financial outcomes as simple coin flips, may lead to errors resulting from:
- The coin landing on its edge 'more often than it's supposed to'.
- The underlying assumption of an unbiased coin not being a valid one. This kind of assumption is usually much too simple.
