Dividend growth model: Difference between revisions

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imported>Doug Williamson
(Removed hence and replaced with .. at future Time 1 period.)
imported>Doug Williamson
(Make timing of Time 1 future dividend explicit.)
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(DGM).  
(DGM).  


The Dividend growth model links the value of a firm’s equity and its market cost of equity by modelling the expected future dividends receivable by the shareholders as a constantly growing perpetuity.
The Dividend growth model links the value of a firm’s equity and its market cost of equity, by modelling the expected future dividends receivable by the shareholders as a constantly growing perpetuity.


Its most common uses are:
Its most common uses are:
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P<sub>0</sub> = ex-dividend equity value today.
P<sub>0</sub> = ex-dividend equity value today.


D<sub>1</sub> = expected dividend at future Time 1 period.
D<sub>1</sub> = expected future dividend at Time 1 period later.


Ke = cost of equity per period.
Ke = cost of equity per period.
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Where:
Where:


D<sub>1</sub> = expected dividend at future Time 1 period = $10m.
D<sub>1</sub> = expected dividend at future Time 1 = $10m.


Ke = cost of equity per period = 10%.
Ke = cost of equity per period = 10%.
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Where:
Where:


D<sub>1</sub> = expected dividend at future Time 1 period = $10m.
D<sub>1</sub> = expected future dividend at Time 1 = $10m.


P<sub>0</sub> = current market value of equity per period = $125m.
P<sub>0</sub> = current market value of equity per period = $125m.

Revision as of 09:33, 31 May 2015

(DGM).

The Dividend growth model links the value of a firm’s equity and its market cost of equity, by modelling the expected future dividends receivable by the shareholders as a constantly growing perpetuity.

Its most common uses are:

(1) Estimating the market cost of equity from the current share price; and

(2) Estimating the fair value of equity from a given or assumed cost of equity.


Expressed as a formula:

Ke = D1 / P0 + g

OR (rearranging the formula)

P0 = D1 / ( Ke - g )


Where:

P0 = ex-dividend equity value today.

D1 = expected future dividend at Time 1 period later.

Ke = cost of equity per period.

g = constant periodic rate of growth in dividend from Time 1 to infinity.


This is an application of the general formula for calculating the present value of a growing perpetuity.


Example 1

Calculating the market value of equity.


Where:

D1 = expected dividend at future Time 1 = $10m.

Ke = cost of equity per period = 10%.

g = constant periodic rate of growth in dividend from Time 1 to infinity = 2%.


P0 = D1 / ( Ke - g )

= 10 / ( 0.10 - 0.02 )

= 10 / 0.08

= $125m.


Example 2

Or alternatively calculating the current market cost of equity using the rearranged formula:

Ke = D1 / P0 + g


Where:

D1 = expected future dividend at Time 1 = $10m.

P0 = current market value of equity per period = $125m.

g = constant periodic rate of growth in dividend from Time 1 to infinity = 2%.


Ke = 10 / 125 + 2%

= 10%.


Also known as the Dividend discount model, the Dividend valuation model or the Gordon growth model.


See also