Dividend growth model and Enterprise risk management: Difference between pages

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(ERM).  


The Dividend growth model links the value of a firm’s equity and its market cost of equity, by modelling the expected future dividends receivable by the shareholders as a constantly growing perpetuity.
Enterprise risk management is the process of analysing and managing risk at the level of the business enterprise as a whole.


Its most common uses are:


(1) Estimating the market <u>cost of equity</u> from the current share price; and
:<span style="color:#4B0082">'''''Four co-ordinated stages'''''</span>


(2) Estimating the fair <u>value</u> of equity from a given or assumed cost of equity.
:Enterprise risk management establishes co-ordinated risk management objectives with clear links to both the firm’s business strategy and to investor expectations. Using an ERM approach, all managers in the firm become risk managers and indeed risk management could be viewed as simply ‘management’. The treasurer’s speciality is managing financial risk, but crucially as part of the management team.  


:A very useful way to view enterprise risk management is to recognise four stages in reaching an approach to risk.
:*Firstly, '''''risk tolerance''''' represents the amount of risk that the firm can actually bear. This could be represented by its capital, or by an amount of capital above a base amount of capital that cannot be put at risk.
:*Secondly, '''''risk appetite''''' is the amount of risk that is actually desired. This might be seen in relation to the return sought by investors. Remember that reward is really only gained by taking risks, so limiting risk will limit reward.
:*Thirdly, risk appetite leads naturally to '''''risk budgeting''''', which is a way of setting out where risks in a firm should be taken. In treasury terms, we might see that if much risk is taken in the business model, then we need a very conservative approach in treasury.
:*Finally this is documented in '''risk policy'''.


''Expressed as a formula:''
:''The Treasurer's Wiki, Guide to risk management.''
 
Ke = D<sub>1</sub> / P<sub>0</sub> + g
 
''OR (rearranging the formula)''
 
P<sub>0</sub> = D<sub>1</sub> / ( Ke - g )
 
 
''Where:''
 
P<sub>0</sub> = ex-dividend equity value today.
 
D<sub>1</sub> = expected future dividend at Time 1 period later.
 
Ke = cost of equity per period.
 
g = constant periodic rate of growth in dividend from Time 1 to infinity.
 
 
This is an application of the general formula for calculating the present value of a growing perpetuity.
 
 
 
<span style="color:#4B0082">'''Example 1: Market value of equity'''</span>
 
Calculating the market <u>value</u> of equity.
 
 
Where:
 
D<sub>1</sub> = expected dividend at future Time 1 = $10m.
 
Ke = cost of equity per period = 10%.
 
g = constant periodic rate of growth in dividend from Time 1 to infinity = 2%.
 
 
P<sub>0</sub> = D<sub>1</sub> / ( Ke - g )
 
= 10 / ( 0.10 - 0.02 )
 
= 10 / 0.08
 
= $'''125'''m.
 
 
 
<span style="color:#4B0082">'''Example 2: Cost of equity'''</span>
 
Or alternatively calculating the current market <u>cost of equity</u> using the rearranged formula:
 
Ke = D<sub>1</sub> / P<sub>0</sub> + g
 
 
Where:
 
D<sub>1</sub> = expected future dividend at Time 1 = $10m.
 
P<sub>0</sub> = current market value of equity per period = $125m.
 
g = constant periodic rate of growth in dividend from Time 1 to infinity = 2%.
 
 
Ke = 10 / 125 + 2%
 
= '''10%.'''
 
 
Also known as the Dividend discount model, the Dividend valuation model or the Gordon growth model.




== See also ==
== See also ==
* [[CertFMM]]
* [[Business risk]]
* [[Cost of equity]]
* [[Commercial risk]]
* [[Corporate finance]]
* [[Enterprise]]
* [[Perpetuity]]
* [[Financial risk]]
 
* [[Guide to risk management]]
 
* [[Institute of Risk Management]]
==Other resources==
* [[Operational risk]]
[[Media:2013_10_Oct_-_The_real_deal.pdf| The real deal, The Treasurer student article]]
* [[Risk]]
* [[Risk management]]
* [[Risk policy]]


[[Category:Corporate_finance]]
[[Category:Manage_risks]]
[[Category:Risk_frameworks]]

Latest revision as of 03:29, 30 March 2024

(ERM).

Enterprise risk management is the process of analysing and managing risk at the level of the business enterprise as a whole.


Four co-ordinated stages
Enterprise risk management establishes co-ordinated risk management objectives with clear links to both the firm’s business strategy and to investor expectations. Using an ERM approach, all managers in the firm become risk managers and indeed risk management could be viewed as simply ‘management’. The treasurer’s speciality is managing financial risk, but crucially as part of the management team.
A very useful way to view enterprise risk management is to recognise four stages in reaching an approach to risk.
  • Firstly, risk tolerance represents the amount of risk that the firm can actually bear. This could be represented by its capital, or by an amount of capital above a base amount of capital that cannot be put at risk.
  • Secondly, risk appetite is the amount of risk that is actually desired. This might be seen in relation to the return sought by investors. Remember that reward is really only gained by taking risks, so limiting risk will limit reward.
  • Thirdly, risk appetite leads naturally to risk budgeting, which is a way of setting out where risks in a firm should be taken. In treasury terms, we might see that if much risk is taken in the business model, then we need a very conservative approach in treasury.
  • Finally this is documented in risk policy.
The Treasurer's Wiki, Guide to risk management.


See also