Probability: Difference between revisions
From ACT Wiki
Jump to navigationJump to search
imported>Doug Williamson (Add link.) |
imported>Doug Williamson (Expand.) |
||
| Line 13: | Line 13: | ||
This simple model of a coin flip assumes that the only two possibilities are a head or a tail. Applying such simple models to financial situations, and treating financial outcomes as simple coin flips, may lead to errors resulting from: | This simple model of a coin flip assumes that the only two possibilities are a head or a tail. Applying such simple models to financial situations, and treating financial outcomes as simple coin flips, may lead to errors resulting from: | ||
#The coin landing on its | #The coin landing on its edge 'more often than it's supposed to'. | ||
#The underlying assumption of an unbiased coin not being valid. | #The underlying assumption of an unbiased coin not being a valid one. This kind of assumption is usually much too simple. | ||
Revision as of 15:19, 8 June 2016
The study of chance providing an objective measure of uncertainty.
Probabilities range between 1 (=100%) and 0 (=0%).
A probability of 100% means that an event is considered certain to occur.
A probability of 0% means that an event is considered certain not to occur.
For example, flipping an unbiased coin, the probability of getting a head is often modelled as 50%.
This simple model of a coin flip assumes that the only two possibilities are a head or a tail. Applying such simple models to financial situations, and treating financial outcomes as simple coin flips, may lead to errors resulting from:
- The coin landing on its edge 'more often than it's supposed to'.
- The underlying assumption of an unbiased coin not being a valid one. This kind of assumption is usually much too simple.
